2019 NBA Finals Odds: Which Team Has the Best Chance to Win the Championship?

2025-11-17 14:00

I still remember the buzz surrounding the 2019 NBA Finals like it was yesterday. As someone who's been analyzing championship odds for over a decade, I've rarely seen a season where the outcome felt so predetermined yet simultaneously uncertain. The Golden State Warriors were chasing their third consecutive title, but something felt different this time around. When I look back at that season, what strikes me most is how the championship conversation completely dominated the basketball world, much like how international volleyball is currently preparing for its own showcase event. Interestingly, while we were all focused on the NBA Finals, nine Italian volleyball coaches were already planning their approach for the 2025 FIVB Volleyball Men's World Championship in the Philippines, alongside the defending champions themselves. This parallel between sports disciplines fascinates me - whether it's basketball or volleyball, the psychology of defending a championship carries similar pressures and strategic considerations.

The Warriors entered the 2019 Finals as -235 favorites according to most sportsbooks, which translates to about a 70% implied probability of winning. Having watched this team evolve over the years, I believed they were worth even heavier favorites, perhaps around -300. Their core had been through everything together - three Finals appearances in the last four years, with two championships already secured. That kind of experience is priceless, similar to how the defending volleyball champions arriving early in the Philippines with nine Italian coaches suggests a comprehensive preparation strategy that championship teams understand is necessary. What many casual observers didn't appreciate was how the Warriors' system created advantages that went beyond pure talent. Their motion offense, while sometimes appearing chaotic, was actually a beautifully choreographed dance that they had perfected over years of playing together. I've always argued that continuity in sports is undervalued, and Golden State demonstrated this perfectly.

Toronto presented an intriguing case study though. At +195 underdogs, they offered tremendous value for bettors willing to take a chance on the upset. Kawhi Leonard was playing at a supernatural level throughout those playoffs, averaging 31.2 points per game while shooting 51% from the field. Those numbers still blow my mind when I look back at them. What made Toronto particularly dangerous was their defensive versatility - they could switch everything, which theoretically could disrupt Golden State's offensive flow. Nick Nurse, in my opinion, was coaching at a level we hadn't seen from a first-year head coach in quite some time. His willingness to experiment with box-and-one defenses and other unconventional strategies showed a creative mind unafraid of criticism. This reminds me of how those Italian volleyball coaches in the Philippines are probably analyzing every possible tactical variation - championship preparation requires leaving no stone unturned.

The injury to Kevin Durant fundamentally changed the series dynamics in ways that I believe even the Raptors didn't anticipate. When he went down in the Western Conference Semifinals, the Warriors' championship probability dropped from approximately 75% to about 58% according to my models. Golden State had proven they could win without him during the regular season, but the playoffs are a different beast entirely. Still, I maintained faith in their system - the combination of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green had championship DNA that I felt could overcome Toronto's talent advantage. What fascinated me was how the betting markets reacted to each development. The line moved more dramatically than I've seen in any Finals series in recent memory, with Toronto eventually becoming -130 favorites after going up 3-1, which felt like an overcorrection to me at the time.

Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, Game 5 stands out as the turning point that confirmed my initial skepticism about Toronto's ability to close out the series. Despite being on the road and facing elimination, Golden State demonstrated why experience matters in these moments. Kevin Durant's emotional return and subsequent injury created one of the most dramatic sequences I've witnessed in my career analyzing sports. The way his teammates responded, particularly Curry's visible anguish, revealed the human element that often gets lost in probability discussions. This emotional component is something that statistics can never fully capture, similar to how the defending volleyball champions preparing in the Philippines must balance tactical preparation with team chemistry and morale.

When Klay Thompson went down in Game 6, I knew immediately that the series was over. The Warriors had been fighting against probability all series, and losing their second-best player was simply too much to overcome. Toronto deserved full credit for their preparation and execution - they had built a team specifically designed to challenge Golden State's dominance, much like how those nine Italian coaches are undoubtedly developing specialized strategies for the 2025 volleyball championship. The Raptors' victory validated the approach of building through strategic acquisitions rather than traditional team construction. Masai Ujiri's decision to trade for Kawhi Leonard, despite knowing he might leave after one season, was a gamble that paid off spectacularly.

Reflecting on that series years later, what stands out to me is how championship windows can close unexpectedly. The Warriors dynasty effectively ended that June evening in Toronto, while the Raptors captured their first championship in franchise history. The 2019 Finals taught me that no matter how strong the favorite appears, basketball remains beautifully unpredictable. Those Italian volleyball coaches currently preparing in the Philippines probably understand this reality better than anyone - defending a championship requires acknowledging that past success guarantees nothing. The delicate balance between confidence and humility separates good teams from legendary ones, a lesson that applies equally to basketball, volleyball, and every competitive endeavor.