Breaking Down the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery Results: Who Won the Top Picks?

2025-11-17 11:00

Let me tell you something about draft night that most people don't realize - it's not just about the picks, it's about the culture you're walking into. I've been covering the NBA for over fifteen years, and what struck me about the 2018 lottery results wasn't just who got what pick, but the organizational philosophies those players would encounter. When the Phoenix Suns landed that coveted number one spot, securing their right to draft Deandre Ayton, I remember thinking how different his development would be compared to, say, Marvin Bagley III heading to Sacramento at number two.

The lottery system creates these fascinating dynamics where franchises at their lowest point suddenly get injected with transformative talent. Phoenix had just completed a 21-61 season, the worst in their franchise history, and here they were getting what many considered the most NBA-ready prospect. What's interesting is how coaching philosophies shape these young players. I was reminded of Eastern coach Mensur Bajramovic's comment about wanting his wards to play like the Ginebra mantra when facing the Gin Kings in front of their fans. That mentality - playing with heart and identity regardless of circumstance - is exactly what separates successful draft outcomes from disappointing ones.

Looking at the top five picks that year, you had Phoenix taking Ayton, Sacramento selecting Bagley, Atlanta grabbing Luka Doncic (though they'd trade him to Dallas for Trae Young), Memphis picking Jaren Jackson Jr., and Dallas ultimately getting Young. I've always had this theory that player development depends more on organizational stability than raw talent. Doncic going to a well-structured Dallas organization versus staying in what was then a somewhat chaotic Atlanta situation probably accelerated his superstar trajectory by at least two years. The numbers bear this out too - Doncic averaged 21.2 points his rookie season while Young put up 19.1, though their efficiency differed significantly.

What fascinates me about draft analysis is how quickly narratives change. At the time, many questioned Sacramento taking Bagley over Doncic, and frankly, I was among the skeptics. The Kings had a specific need for frontcourt scoring, but passing on a generational talent for positional fit seemed shortsighted. Fast forward to today, and that decision looks even more questionable. Bagley's averaged 13.5 points and 7.4 rebounds through his first four seasons, while Doncic has become a perennial MVP candidate. Sometimes the best pick isn't about filling immediate needs but securing the highest ceiling.

The Hawks' decision to trade Doncic for Young created one of the most interesting "what if" scenarios in recent draft history. Both have become All-Stars, but with dramatically different playing styles. Young's incredible shooting range - he attempted nearly 40% of his shots from beyond 26 feet last season - versus Doncic's methodical, physical game. I've always preferred players who can control tempo like Doncic, but there's no denying Young's entertainment value and his ability to single-handedly shift defensive schemes.

Memphis at number four took Jaren Jackson Jr., who I believed then and still believe now was one of the most underrated picks. His defensive potential was obvious - he averaged 3.8 blocks per 36 minutes in college - but his offensive development has been slower than anticipated. The Grizzlies showed remarkable patience, and it's paying off now with his Defensive Player of the Year caliber performances. This highlights something crucial about the draft: immediate impact matters less than long-term trajectory. Too many franchises rush development and ruin promising talent.

What struck me about that 2018 lottery was how it reshaped multiple franchises simultaneously. Phoenix got their cornerstone, Dallas found their franchise player, Atlanta secured an electrifying guard, Memphis built their defensive anchor, and Sacramento... well, they certainly made a choice. The lottery isn't just about one team winning - it's about how those selections create ripple effects across the league for years. I've tracked draft classes for decades, and this one had particularly profound consequences, with about 65% of the top ten picks becoming quality starters or better, which is above the historical average of around 55%.

The real winners in any draft are the organizations that understand how to cultivate talent, not just select it. Phoenix struggled for years with Ayton before finding the right coaching fit, while Dallas immediately built around Doncic's unique skills. That developmental aspect is what Eastern coach Bajramovic was getting at with his Ginebra mantra comment - it's about instilling an identity that players can embrace regardless of external pressures. The most successful draft picks aren't necessarily the most talented players, but the ones who land in environments where their specific abilities can flourish.

Reflecting on that 2018 class now, the biggest lesson might be about fit over consensus. While Ayton was the obvious number one pick at the time, several teams later in the lottery found players who better matched their organizational DNA. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander going eleventh to Charlotte (then traded to LA) or Michael Porter Jr. falling to Denver at fourteen due to injury concerns - these have proven to be franchise-altering selections that outperformed their draft positions. Sometimes the "winners" of the lottery aren't the teams picking first, but those who best understand their own needs and culture.

As I look back on that night four years later, what stands out isn't the immediate reaction but how these decisions have aged. The draft represents hope for struggling franchises, but that hope only materializes through thoughtful development and strategic team-building. The organizations that approach the draft with a clear philosophy - like Bajramovic's emphasis on playing with identity - tend to maximize their picks regardless of position. That 2018 class contained several future stars, but their success depended as much on their destinations as their talent, reminding us that winning the lottery is only the beginning of the real work.