How the Current NBA Rockets Roster Is Shaping Their Playoff Chances

2025-11-12 13:00

As I watch the Houston Rockets navigate this pivotal season, I can't help but draw parallels to that classic boxing match where Llover patiently waited for his moment before unleashing decisive combinations in the eighth round against Concepcion. That's exactly what this young Rockets team is doing right now - they're in that patient build-up phase, carefully developing their roster while waiting for the perfect moment to strike in the Western Conference playoff picture. Having followed the NBA for over fifteen years, I've seen countless teams attempt this rebuild process, but there's something uniquely compelling about how general manager Rafael Stone and head coach Ime Udoka are approaching this challenge.

The foundation starts with their backcourt, where Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet form one of the most intriguing guard combinations in the league. Green's explosive scoring ability reminds me of a young Zach LaVine, but with potentially higher defensive upside. Through 65 games this season, he's averaging 21.3 points on 44% shooting, showing significant improvement from his first two seasons. VanVleet, meanwhile, brings that veteran presence every young team needs - he's the steady hand that keeps the offense organized while providing elite perimeter defense. What many casual fans might not appreciate is how VanVleet's leadership has accelerated the development of younger players. I've noticed during timeouts how he's constantly coaching up his teammates, something that doesn't show up in the stat sheet but absolutely impacts winning basketball.

Up front, Alperen Şengün has emerged as one of the most skilled big men in the entire NBA. His footwork in the post is simply breathtaking - I'd put it up against any center not named Jokić. Before his unfortunate ankle injury that sidelined him for approximately 18 games, Şengün was putting up All-Star caliber numbers: 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. His ability to facilitate offense from the high post creates opportunities that most teams simply can't replicate. Watching him operate reminds me of those classic Vlade Divac or Arvydas Sabonis types, but with modern athleticism. The real question becomes how quickly he can return to form after the injury, as his presence fundamentally changes how defenses have to approach the Rockets.

What really excites me about this roster construction is the depth they've assembled. Players like Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, and Cam Whitmore represent exactly the kind of high-upside talent that championship teams are built upon. Smith in particular has shown remarkable growth in his sophomore season, improving his three-point percentage from 30.7% to 38.4% while becoming a more versatile defender. I've been particularly impressed with how he's handled the pressure of being a high draft pick, steadily improving without forcing the issue. Thompson's athleticism is simply off the charts - I'd argue he's already one of the top 15 athletes in the entire league, and his defensive potential is staggering.

The coaching staff deserves tremendous credit for implementing a system that maximizes these players' strengths while hiding their weaknesses. Udoka's defensive scheme has transformed the Rockets from one of the league's worst defensive teams to ranking 12th in defensive rating this season. That's a massive jump, and it speaks to both his coaching acumen and the players' buy-in. I've noticed how they've incorporated more switching and help defense principles compared to earlier in the season, adjustments that show this staff's ability to evolve as the season progresses.

Looking at their playoff chances realistically, the Rockets face an uphill battle in the loaded Western Conference. They're currently sitting at 35-35, which places them 11th in the conference but only 2.5 games behind the 10th-seeded Golden State Warriors. The play-in tournament gives them a legitimate path to the postseason, but they'll need to outperform at least two other teams down the stretch. Their remaining schedule includes some favorable matchups against teams like Portland and Utah, but also challenging games against Dallas and the Clippers. If I had to put a number on it, I'd give them about a 35% chance of making the play-in tournament and roughly 15% chance of actually advancing to the first round.

The comparison to Llover's patient approach really resonates when you consider their timeline. Unlike some teams that rush the rebuild process, the Rockets seem content to develop their young core organically while maintaining future flexibility. They have all their first-round picks moving forward, plus some interesting trade assets if they choose to be aggressive this offseason. From my perspective, they're probably one star player away from being legitimate contenders, whether that comes through internal development or a strategic trade.

What makes this team so fascinating to follow is watching the day-to-day growth. I've attended several of their games this season, both home and away, and you can literally see the improvement from month to month. The ball movement is crisper, the defensive rotations are sharper, and the basketball IQ is noticeably higher than it was even in December. Players who looked lost in defensive schemes earlier in the season are now communicating and making the right reads consistently.

As we approach the final stretch of the regular season, the Rockets find themselves in that eighth-round position - they've weathered the early rounds, developed their game plan, and now need to deliver those decisive combinations to secure a playoff spot. It won't be easy, but the foundation they've built suggests this could be the beginning of something special rather than a flash in the pan. The patient fight continues, but I genuinely believe we're watching the emergence of the next Western Conference powerhouse, even if the full payoff might still be a season or two away.