Who Had the Best 2019 NBA Finals MVP Odds Before the Championship?

2025-11-11 11:00

As I sat courtside during Game 1 of the 2019 NBA Finals, watching Kawhi Leonard drain yet another impossible shot over Draymond Green's outstretched arms, I found myself thinking back to the preseason odds. Honestly, I'd been tracking these numbers since October like some people follow their stock portfolios - with a mixture of professional curiosity and personal obsession. The betting landscape before that championship series was particularly fascinating because we had two legitimate superteams colliding, yet the MVP market told a more nuanced story.

Before we dive into those numbers, let me share something I've learned from covering basketball for fifteen years. When Penalosa, the two-time former world champion, admitted Concepcion is going to be a tough test for the 22-year-old Llover, it reminded me how veteran observers can spot challenges that casual fans might miss. That same dynamic plays out in NBA Finals MVP betting every single year. The public sees the stars, but sharp bettors understand context - matchups, defensive schemes, and which players are truly built for championship pressure.

Now let's talk about those pre-series odds. Kawhi Leonard entered as the clear favorite at most sportsbooks, sitting around +180 at Caesars and similar numbers across other major books. This made perfect sense when you consider what he'd already accomplished that postseason. The man was basically carrying the entire city of Toronto on his back while putting together one of the most impressive playoff runs I've witnessed since LeBron's 2016 masterpiece. Stephen Curry followed as the second choice, generally listed between +220 and +250 depending on the book. What fascinated me about Curry's position was how it reflected both his superstar status and the Warriors' perceived hierarchy - with Kevin Durant's calf injury creating uncertainty, Curry naturally became the focal point.

Speaking of Durant, his situation created the most interesting betting dilemma I've seen in recent Finals history. Books had him around +400 before Game 1, but that was pure speculation since nobody knew if or when he'd return. I remember telling my podcast listeners that betting on Durant was essentially wagering on two outcomes - his health and his performance. The +400 looked tempting on paper, but without clarity on his recovery timeline, it felt like throwing darts blindfolded.

The Raptors' secondary options presented some intriguing value plays. Pascal Siakam sat around +1600, which in retrospect looks like absolute robbery given his explosive start to the series. Kyle Lowry hovered between +2500 and +3000, numbers that reflected his inconsistent scoring but underestimated his overall impact. On the Warriors side, Klay Thompson at +1200 and Draymond Green at +1800 offered potential payouts that caught my eye, though I had reservations about either surpassing Curry in narrative value unless something unusual happened.

What many casual bettors don't understand is how much Finals MVP voting leans toward storyline and narrative. I've seen this pattern hold true across multiple championships - voters love redemption arcs, underdog stories, and players overcoming adversity. This is why I actually placed a small wager on Fred VanVleet at +5000 before Game 3, not because I thought he'd be Toronto's best player, but because his bench-to-hero journey and the birth of his child during the series created the kind of narrative that sometimes sways voters.

The injury variable ultimately shaped this market more than any Finals I can recall. When Durant returned for Game 5 only to suffer his Achilles injury, it eliminated Golden State's most potent weapon and fundamentally altered the championship equation. Then when Klay went down in Game 6, the Warriors' chances essentially evaporated. This series became a brutal reminder that no amount of statistical analysis can account for the physical fragility of even the world's greatest athletes.

Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, Leonard at +180 was actually tremendous value considering he ultimately won the award. His two-way dominance throughout the series - the defensive stops, the timely scoring, the unshakable composure - made him the obvious choice once the final buzzer sounded. But what's fascinating to me is how the value shifted as the series progressed. After Toronto went up 3-1, you could still find Leonard at plus money at some offshore books, which in my view represented the last truly valuable betting opportunity of the series.

The 2019 Finals MVP odds market taught me several lessons I've carried into subsequent championships. First, always account for the narrative component - basketball isn't played in a vacuum, and voter psychology matters. Second, beware of injured stars, no matter how tempting the odds may seem. And third, sometimes the obvious choice is obvious for good reason. While I enjoy finding longshot value, there are moments when the favorite is simply the right bet, and Leonard in 2019 was one of those cases. The numbers told one story before the series, but the basketball told the true story as it unfolded.