Will Kai Sotto Get Drafted in the 2022 NBA Draft? What Experts Are Saying

2025-11-13 17:01

As I sit here scrolling through basketball forums and refreshing NBA draft projections, one name keeps popping up from an unexpected corner of the world - Kai Sotto. The 7'2" Filipino center has become something of a polarizing figure in draft conversations, with experts divided on whether he'll hear his name called on June 23rd. What's particularly fascinating to me, having followed international basketball prospects for over a decade, is how Sotto's journey intersects with recent developments back in his home country's basketball scene. Just last Friday, PBA Commissioner Willie Marcial announced the suspension of Deputy Commissioner Eric Castro and technical committee head Bong Pascual - a move that speaks volumes about the intense pressure and scrutiny surrounding Philippine basketball.

The timing of these suspensions strikes me as particularly significant when examining Sotto's draft prospects. Philippine basketball is at a crossroads, and how it handles its governance could indirectly impact how NBA teams view products of its system. I've noticed that when there's turmoil in a player's home basketball ecosystem, scouts tend to become more cautious. In Sotto's case, he's spent the past year with the Adelaide 36ers in Australia's NBL, putting up 7.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in about 15 minutes per game. These numbers don't leap off the page, but having watched his NBL highlights multiple times, I can tell you his impact goes beyond statistics. His footwork for a player his size is exceptional, and his shooting touch suggests potential stretch-five capabilities.

What really gets me excited about Sotto's potential is his performance at the 2021 FIBA Asia Cup qualifiers, where he averaged 12.5 points and 8 rebounds. I remember watching those games and thinking - this kid moves differently than traditional big men. He's got that smooth, almost graceful quality to his game that you can't really teach. Still, when I check various mock drafts, he's consistently in that 45-60 range, which puts him squarely on the bubble. ESPN's latest mock has him going undrafted, while The Ringer places him at 52nd to the Pelicans. This discrepancy tells me that team fit and private workouts will determine his fate more than anything else.

The recent PBA suspensions involving Castro and Pascual actually highlight something important about Sotto's situation - the basketball world is paying closer attention to how Philippine basketball operates. When I spoke with several NBA scouts off the record last month, they mentioned that they're watching how the PBA handles its governance issues, as it could indicate the level of professional development Sotto received early in his career. One scout told me, "We're looking at the whole ecosystem - if there's instability back home, it might mean the player had to overcome more challenges in his development path."

Personally, I think Sotto's international experience gives him an edge that many prospects lack. Having played in the Philippines, then the NBA G League Ignite team (briefly), and most recently in Australia, he's faced diverse styles of play. I've always believed that international experience accelerates a player's basketball IQ, and in Sotto's case, it shows in his passing and defensive positioning. His 1.8 blocks per 36 minutes in the NBL demonstrates his timing and rim protection potential.

However, let me be real about the concerns. His slender 210-pound frame worries me when imagining him battling against NBA centers. I've seen him get pushed around in the post during NBL games, and the physicality only increases at the next level. His three-point shooting at 28% needs significant improvement to become a reliable floor spacer. These are legitimate red flags that could see him slide out of the draft entirely.

The suspension of officials back in the PBA might seem unrelated, but to me, it symbolizes the heightened scrutiny on Philippine basketball talent. When governance issues surface, it creates uncertainty about player development systems. Having covered Asian basketball for years, I can tell you that NBA teams are increasingly sophisticated in their evaluation of international prospects - they're not just looking at the player, but at the entire developmental pathway.

Here's where I might differ from some analysts: I believe Sotto's cultural significance could work in his favor. The NBA knows tapping into the Philippine market represents massive potential, with over 10 million passionate basketball fans in the country. Drafting Sotto would instantly create millions of new followers for whichever team selects him. I've seen this story before with players like Yao Ming and Jeremy Lin - sometimes, market considerations do influence draft decisions, whether teams admit it or not.

My prediction? I think he gets drafted in the early to mid-second round. The combination of his unique skill set for his size and the potential market impact makes him worth the gamble. Teams like Oklahoma City (with picks 34 and 36) or Sacramento (at 49) seem like logical fits based on their roster construction and developmental patience. The suspension news from the PBA might create temporary uncertainty, but Sotto has been away from that system long enough that most teams will focus on his more recent development in Australia.

Watching his journey reminds me why I love the NBA draft process - it's not just about current ability, but projecting growth. With Sotto, you're betting on the physical tools and the international experience overcoming the current weaknesses. The recent governance issues in Philippine basketball might raise eyebrows, but they won't determine his fate. What will determine it is whether teams believe in that smooth shooting stroke translating to NBA range and that lanky frame filling out with NBA conditioning programs. I'm betting at least one team will take that chance, making Kai Sotto the first Philippine-developed player to be drafted directly into the NBA.