Will the NC State Wolfpack Football Team Make a Bowl Game This Season?

2025-11-08 10:00

As a longtime college football analyst who’s tracked the Wolfpack’s trajectory for years, I’ve been asked one question more than any other this preseason: Will NC State make a bowl game this year? It’s a fair question—and one that’s more layered than it seems. Let me walk you through my thinking, not just as an observer, but as someone who’s studied team dynamics, scheduling quirks, and what I like to call the “Group of Death” effect in sports. Yes, that term—often reserved for global soccer tournaments—applies here more than you might think. In fact, just look at international competitions like the recent FIBA Asia Cup, where two-time champion Australia landed in Group A alongside Korea, Lebanon, and Qatar. Analysts immediately dubbed it the ‘Group of Death,’ and for good reason: when you’re facing multiple high-stakes opponents back-to-back, survival isn’t guaranteed, no matter your pedigree. That’s the same energy I sense around NC State’s 2023 schedule—a brutal stretch that could make or break their bowl eligibility.

Let’s start with the schedule, because honestly, that’s where my concern—and excitement—kicks in. The Wolfpack opens with a couple of manageable non-conference games, but by late September, things get real. They’ve got Clemson on the road, followed by Miami at home, and then a trip to Louisville. Three potentially ranked opponents in four weeks. If that doesn’t scream “Group of Death,” I don’t know what does. In that FIBA scenario I mentioned, Australia—a two-time champ—still had to sweat through every match. One bad half, one injury, one referee call, and the whole house of cards could tumble. NC State isn’t a two-time national champion, but they’ve built a reputation for being scrappy, unpredictable, and occasionally brilliant. Last season, they finished 8–5, squeaking into a bowl and winning it. This year, the margin for error feels thinner. If they drop two of those three tough ACC games, they’d need to run the table elsewhere to feel safe. And given that the Pack has historically struggled with consistency—just look at 2021, when they started 5–1 but finished 7–5—that’s asking a lot.

Now, I’ll admit I’m bullish on their defense. Returning eight starters, including linebacker Drake Thomas and cornerback Shyheim Battle, gives them a backbone that’s rare in today’s transfer-portal era. Last season, that unit allowed just 22.1 points per game—good for 30th nationally. If they can shave that down to, say, 19 or 20 this year, they’ll keep games winnable even when the offense sputters. But here’s the rub: offense wins shootouts, and in the ACC, you’re going to find yourself in a few of those. Quarterback Devin Leary is back, which is huge, but his receiving corps lost Emeka Emezie, and that’s a 1,000-yard production hole to fill. I’ve watched this team long enough to know that when the passing game stalls, the play-calling gets conservative, and suddenly a 10-point deficit feels like 30. They’ll need to average at least 30 points per game in conference play to keep pace with Clemson and Miami—teams that hung 30 and 31 on them last year, respectively.

What gives me hope, though, is the culture head coach Dave Doeren has built. This isn’t a team that folds under pressure—they’ve pulled off upsets when least expected, like beating Clemson in 2021. Doeren’s 62–53 record at NC State may not blow anyone away, but he’s stabilized the program, and players believe in his system. I remember talking to a former Wolfpack linebacker who told me, “We always knew we could hang with anyone—it was about executing for four quarters.” That mental toughness is what separates bowl teams from also-rans. Still, mental toughness only gets you so far when you’re staring down a fourth-quarter deficit against a team with five-star recruits across the board.

Let’s talk numbers for a second. To reach the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility, NC State likely needs to go 4–2 in non-conference and “easier” ACC games, then steal two from the tougher half of their schedule. That means beating, say, Florida State and Syracuse, while hoping to split the Clemson–Miami–Louisville gauntlet. Statistically, their chances look about 60–40 in favor of a bowl bid, but that’s assuming no major injuries or COVID disruptions. Last season, 83 teams reached bowl eligibility—a record—but this year, with normalcy returning, the bar could be higher. If the Wolfpack slips to 6–6, they might still get an invite, but it’d likely be a lower-tier game like the Fenway Bowl or Gasparilla Bowl. As a fan, you’d take it, but it’s not the breakthrough season many are hoping for.

Stepping back, I see parallels between NC State’s path and that FIBA ‘Group of Death’ I referenced earlier. Australia, despite its titles, couldn’t afford to overlook Lebanon or Qatar—not when every game carried equal weight. Similarly, the Wolfpack can’t afford to sleepwalk through games against Virginia or Boston College just because they’re not ranked. One upset loss there, and the math gets messy. My gut says this team finds a way—they’ve got the experience, the coaching, and a favorable home slate in key moments. But my head warns that the ACC is deeper than ever, and the ‘Group of Death’ stretch will test their limits. If Leary stays healthy and the defense creates turnovers, I’m predicting a 7–5 finish and a mid-tier bowl bid. If not, we could be looking at a long, frustrating winter in Raleigh. Either way, I’ll be watching—because when it comes to NC State football, the drama is always worth the price of admission.